Latin America’s growing challenge: ‘fragmentation’

While Latin American presidents meet in regular summits that usually end with grandiose declarations vowing to dramatically increase economic integration, several little-noticed reports paint a very different picture: they show that trade within the region is falling fast.

A report published in January by the Latin American Integration Association (ALADI), a group made up of most South American countries and Mexico, says that trade within the region has fallen by more than 17 percent over the past three years, and that the latest figures from December 2014 confirm a continuing “downward trend.”

An earlier report by the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense is even more dramatic. It says that “Latin America and the Caribbean are likely to remain politically and economically fragmented” over the next three decades “with individual countries pursuing bilateral relationships rather than forming a strong unified bloc.”

The report, entitled “Global Strategic Trends — out to 2045” and available on the internet, states that “it is likely that the region will remain a loose community of countries rather than becoming an institutionalized federal entity.”

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