Economists have been predicting for several months that Latin America will have a so-so year in 2015, but new projections from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund suggest that it may be worse than originally expected.
That’s bad news, because economic forecasts from the World Bank and the IMF — and even to a greater extent those from the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) — tend to be much more optimistic than those of leading private economists. When these international institutions lower their economic forecasts, it’s time to worry.
The World Bank earlier this week reduced its growth projection for the region in 2015 from its previous estimate of 2.9 percent to 1.7 percent. The IMF is expected to cut it from 2.2 percent to 1.5 percent when it announces its annual forecasts next week.
Both international institutions cite falling prices of Latin American commodity exports — mainly oil, minerals and soybeans — among the major causes behind the region’s low growth.
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Etiquetas: Andres Oppenheimer, Latin America
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