Things are changing in Venezuela — and not in Maduro’s favor

(Photo: Ariana Cubillos – AP)

An interview with Venezuelan opposition leader Henrique Capriles earlier this week left me more hopeful than at any time in recent months that President Nicolás Maduro may not be able to maintain his de facto dictatorship indefinitely.

Until a few weeks ago, the conventional wisdom in diplomatic circles was that Maduro’s control of virtually all Venezuelan institutions, his suppression of the opposition-controlled National Assembly’s powers, military repression and a divided opposition would make it very difficult to restore democracy in Venezuela anytime soon.

But, all of a sudden, the opposition has regained its momentum. An escalation of international diplomatic pressure against Maduro and massive demonstrations sparked by the Venezuelan regime’s decision to curtail the National Assembly’s last remaining powers — later reversed under pressure — has put the Venezuelan regime on the defensive. Two young people have already died in the protests, and many are wounded.

Capriles, the governor of the state of Miranda and a former presidential candidate who narrowly lost against Maduro in a questionable 2013 election in which no credible foreign observers were allowed, was banned last week from running for office for 15 years.

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