(Photo: Fernando Llano AP)
Venezuela’s political crisis is escalating rapidly following the impressive opposition-organized vote against President Nicolás Maduro’s plan to impose a Cuba-style constitution, and after President Donald Trump’s threat to take “strong and swift economic actions” against the Venezuelan regime.
An estimated 100 people have already died in recent protests against the Maduro regime. And the death toll may escalate as Maduro vows to go ahead with his plan to convene a Constituent Assembly with hand-picked delegates on July 30 to change the constitution. If that happens, Maduro would close down the opposition majority National Assembly, which was democratically elected in 2015.
What could happen after that? There are four possible scenarios:
The Nicaragua scenario: a relatively peaceful democratic outcome. Following the massive July 16 vote in which more than 7 million Venezuelans voted against Maduro’s plan to change the constitution, the international community steps up its pressure on the Venezuelan regime.
Most major Latin American countries, the European Union and the United States make a joint announcement that they will not recognize any Venezuelan government coming out of an illegitimate Constituent Assembly, and that they will condition all future oil contracts with Venezuela on the approval of that country’s existing National Assembly.
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Etiquetas: crisis, Maduro, Venezuela
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