Castro’s death may not trigger economic recovery in Cuba

(Photo: Natacha Pisarenko – AP)

Now that Fidel Castro is gone and the leaders of Canada, Mexico and other countries have made fools of themselves by praising the alleged accomplishments of a dictator who destroyed his country’s economy and executed thousands of people, it’s time to take a look at Cuba’s future. It doesn’t look good.

In theory, things should get better. President Raul Castro, 86, has proven to be more pragmatic than his deceased older brother. He could have an easier time implementing the much-needed economic reforms that he announced at the VI Congress of the Communist Party in 2011 and that he vowed to speed up at the VII Congress earlier this year .

Raul Castro’s small steps toward a Vietnam-styled, state-run form of capitalism were slowed down because of resistance from Fidel, who remained a powerful figure behind the throne. Without Fidel, the hard-line «Fidelistas» would have less power to stop the reforms, the theory went.

But most economists now agree that Raul Castro faces a perfect storm of bad news that will make it difficult for Cuba’s economy to get back on its feet.

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